Roseland Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Roseland is a Far South Side neighborhood organized around the Michigan Avenue commercial corridor and the Metra Electric line's 103rd and 111th stations. Predominantly bungalows and brick two-flats, named for the rose gardens that early Dutch settlers planted in the area.
Three categories ran below trend in Roseland this September, all on the downward side: vandalism, robbery, and homicide. No spikes or rare events surfaced. The month's shape is a clean, narrow downward signal across both property crime and violent categories.
Vandalism is the strongest of the three signals, with 638 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 732 in the prior year, down 12.8%. Homicide dropped from 20 to 15 over the same stretch, a 25.0% reduction year over year. Robbery held flat at 142 incidents in both periods and registered as a below-trend signal on a monthly basis rather than a sustained shift. All other tracked categories, including burglary, which is up 18.3% over 12 months, fell within the normal range for single-month readings and did not cross the anomaly threshold this period.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 638 incidents — about 25% below the 847 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 142 incidents — about 31% below the 207 average from prior years.
Homicide
The past 12 months saw 15 incidents — about 39% below the 25 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Roseland compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Near North Side
657 incidents over the past 12 months — 19 above Roseland's 638.
Open page →North Lawndale
619 incidents over the past 12 months — 19 below Roseland's 638.
Open page →Greater Grand Crossing
686 incidents over the past 12 months — 48 above Roseland's 638.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Roseland, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.