Roseland Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Roseland is a Far South Side neighborhood organized around the Michigan Avenue commercial corridor and the Metra Electric line's 103rd and 111th stations. Predominantly bungalows and brick two-flats, named for the rose gardens that early Dutch settlers planted in the area.
Two categories moved in Roseland this August, both below trend. Vandalism and robbery each registered as one-month below-trend signals, a narrow but coherent picture: the month was quiet, with no spikes, no rare events, and no structural sustained shifts in the mix.
Vandalism's 12-month total stands at 658 incidents, down 9.4% against the prior year's 726. Robbery ran similarly below trend, with 144 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 147 the year before, a 2.0% decline. Everything else in Roseland, including aggravated assault at 318 (down 10.9%) and motor vehicle theft at 410 (down 16.0%), tracked within the broader downward pattern without crossing any anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 658 incidents — about 22% below the 849 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 144 incidents — about 31% below the 208 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Roseland compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Near North Side
650 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Roseland's 658.
Open page →Greater Grand Crossing
683 incidents over the past 12 months — 25 above Roseland's 658.
Open page →North Lawndale
626 incidents over the past 12 months — 32 below Roseland's 658.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Roseland, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.