Roseland Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Roseland is a Far South Side neighborhood organized around the Michigan Avenue commercial corridor and the Metra Electric line's 103rd and 111th stations. Predominantly bungalows and brick two-flats, named for the rose gardens that early Dutch settlers planted in the area.
Two categories ran below trend in Roseland this March — vandalism and aggravated assault, both registering as one-month below-trend signals against an otherwise stable backdrop. With only two tracked signals and no spikes or rare events, the month's shape is modest and directionally downward.
Vandalism is the more structurally notable of the two: the current 12-month total of 655 incidents sits against a baseline mean of 855.93, and the trailing year is down 12.4% from the prior 12-month period (748 incidents). Aggravated assault shows a similar 12-month pattern — 325 incidents against 357 in the year before, a -9.0% shift. Every other tracked category was within its normal range this month.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 655 incidents — about 23% below the 856 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 325 incidents — about 22% below the 417 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Roseland compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
North Lawndale
627 incidents over the past 12 months — 28 below Roseland's 655.
Open page →Near North Side
704 incidents over the past 12 months — 49 above Roseland's 655.
Open page →Chatham
603 incidents over the past 12 months — 52 below Roseland's 655.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Roseland, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.