Near North Side Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Near North Side is a downtown neighborhood that includes the Magnificent Mile, the Gold Coast, River North, and Streeterville. Anchored by the Tribune Tower, the Wrigley Building, Navy Pier, and the John Hancock Center; bordered by Lake Michigan to the east and the Chicago River to the south.
August 2026 was a quiet month for Near North Side. No tracked category crossed the anomaly threshold, and the signal count was zero across all types, spikes, drops, sustained shifts, and rare events alike.
The 12-month picture is the more informative read. Homicide is down 57.1% against the prior year, 6 incidents vs 14. Robbery fell 21.8% (222 vs 284) and aggravated assault dropped 13.0% (281 vs 323). Motor vehicle theft is the one category running above prior-year pace, up 5.0% to 439 incidents, with other larceny essentially flat at 4,690 vs 4,630. Everything else, burglary, vandalism, sexual assault, is below the prior 12-month total.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Near North Side compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Near West Side
3,439 incidents over the past 12 months — 1251 below Near North Side's 4,690.
Open page →Loop
3,299 incidents over the past 12 months — 1391 below Near North Side's 4,690.
Open page →West Town
2,752 incidents over the past 12 months — 1938 below Near North Side's 4,690.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Near North Side, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.