Greater Grand Crossing Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Greater Grand Crossing is a South Side neighborhood organized around 75th Street and Cottage Grove Avenue, named for the Grand Crossing rail intersection. Predominantly mid-century housing, bordered by the Chicago Skyway and the Metra Electric line.
Two signals surfaced in Greater Grand Crossing this September, both pointing to the same category. Robbery drove both moves: a one-month below-trend signal and a sustained multi-month structural shift running in the same direction. The rest of the tracked categories were within normal range.
Robbery's 12-month total has fallen to 166 incidents from 231 in the prior year, a 28.1% reduction. That drop is the clearest structural move in the neighborhood's recent data. Every other category, including aggravated assault at 473 incidents and other larceny at 909, held close to prior-year levels with no anomalous movement this month.
Notable signals 1
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 166 incidents — about 32% below the 244 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 166, down 28% from 231 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Greater Grand Crossing compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Humboldt Park
167 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Greater Grand Crossing's 166.
Open page →North Lawndale
158 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Greater Grand Crossing's 166.
Open page →Chatham
151 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Greater Grand Crossing's 166.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Greater Grand Crossing, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.