Greater Grand Crossing Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Greater Grand Crossing is a South Side neighborhood organized around 75th Street and Cottage Grove Avenue, named for the Grand Crossing rail intersection. Predominantly mid-century housing, bordered by the Chicago Skyway and the Metra Electric line.
March 2026 was a quiet month for Greater Grand Crossing. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold — zero signals across the full crime mix, the clearest possible read-through from the data.
The 12-month picture underneath that quiet surface is more varied. Homicide is down 40.6% against the prior year — 19 incidents vs. 32 — and motor vehicle theft is down 23.3% (409 vs. 533). Vandalism and sexual assault moved in the other direction, up 6.5% and 14.3% respectively on 12-month totals of 721 and 64, though neither produced a signal this month. Everything else landed within range.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Greater Grand Crossing compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Rogers Park
899 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Greater Grand Crossing's 907.
Open page →Avondale
886 incidents over the past 12 months — 21 below Greater Grand Crossing's 907.
Open page →Portage Park
928 incidents over the past 12 months — 21 above Greater Grand Crossing's 907.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Greater Grand Crossing, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.