Greater Grand Crossing Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Greater Grand Crossing is a South Side neighborhood organized around 75th Street and Cottage Grove Avenue, named for the Grand Crossing rail intersection. Predominantly mid-century housing, bordered by the Chicago Skyway and the Metra Electric line.
April 2026 produced two signals in Greater Grand Crossing, both concentrated in a single category: robbery ran below its single-month trend and simultaneously registered as a sustained structural shift — meaning the decline isn't just this month's read, but a multi-year pattern hardening in the trailing 12-month window. Every other tracked category was within normal range.
Robbery's current 12-month total stands at 186, down from 260 the prior year — a 28.5% reduction — and well below the multi-year baseline of 244.53. That gap is what separates this from a routine quiet month. Homicide and motor vehicle theft also posted large year-over-year reductions (-35.5% and -18.9%, respectively), reinforcing a broader downward trend in the neighborhood's most serious categories, though neither crossed the anomaly threshold this briefing.
Notable signals 1
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 186 incidents — about 24% below the 245 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 186, down 29% from 260 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Greater Grand Crossing compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Near West Side
199 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 above Greater Grand Crossing's 186.
Open page →North Lawndale
160 incidents over the past 12 months — 26 below Greater Grand Crossing's 186.
Open page →Chatham
158 incidents over the past 12 months — 28 below Greater Grand Crossing's 186.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Greater Grand Crossing, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.