Greater Grand Crossing Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Greater Grand Crossing is a South Side neighborhood organized around 75th Street and Cottage Grove Avenue, named for the Grand Crossing rail intersection. Predominantly mid-century housing, bordered by the Chicago Skyway and the Metra Electric line.
Two signals surfaced in Greater Grand Crossing this August, both in robbery. One is a single-month below-trend signal; the other reflects a longer structural decline across the trailing 12 months. Together they point in the same direction: robbery in this neighborhood is running well below where it was.
Robbery over the past 12 months totaled 167 incidents, down 29.5% against the prior 12-month count of 237. The sustained-shift signal confirms this isn't just a quiet August, it's a multi-month pattern. Every other tracked category, including aggravated assault, other larceny, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism, came in within normal year-over-year range, with no additional signals this period.
Notable signals 1
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 167 incidents — about 32% below the 245 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 167, down 30% from 237 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Greater Grand Crossing compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
North Lawndale
159 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Greater Grand Crossing's 167.
Open page →Humboldt Park
178 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 above Greater Grand Crossing's 167.
Open page →Chatham
147 incidents over the past 12 months — 20 below Greater Grand Crossing's 167.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Greater Grand Crossing, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.