Greater Grand Crossing Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Greater Grand Crossing is a South Side neighborhood organized around 75th Street and Cottage Grove Avenue, named for the Grand Crossing rail intersection. Predominantly mid-century housing, bordered by the Chicago Skyway and the Metra Electric line.
Greater Grand Crossing had a focused month: two signals, both on robbery, both pointing the same direction. One is a single-month below-trend signal; the other reflects a multi-month structural shift — meaning the decline in robbery isn't a one-month anomaly but a pattern that has been building across the trailing 12 months. Everything else — aggravated assault, motor vehicle theft, vandalism, burglary, other larceny — ran without triggering a signal this period.
Robbery's 12-month total has fallen to 170 incidents from 249 in the prior year, a 31.7% reduction against a baseline that averaged 244.73 annually. That gap between the current count and the multi-year baseline is what drove both signals. Aggravated assault moved in the opposite direction at the 12-month level — 489 incidents vs. 459 prior, up 6.5% — but did not cross a signal threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 170 incidents — about 31% below the 245 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 170, down 32% from 249 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Greater Grand Crossing compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Humboldt Park
162 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Greater Grand Crossing's 170.
Open page →North Lawndale
156 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 below Greater Grand Crossing's 170.
Open page →Roseland
155 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Greater Grand Crossing's 170.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Greater Grand Crossing, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.