Irving Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Irving Park is a Northwest Side neighborhood organized around Irving Park Road and the CTA Blue Line's Irving Park and Addison stations. Predominantly bungalows and Victorian-era homes, with the historic Old Irving Park subdivision and Independence Park as anchors.
Two signals surfaced in Irving Park this August, both pointing the same direction: aggravated assault ran below its single-month trend and also registers as a sustained structural shift downward. The double read on one category is the story of the month. No other category crossed the anomaly threshold.
Aggravated assault sits at 71 incidents over the current 12 months, down from 106 in the prior 12-month period, a 33.0% reduction. Robbery shows a similar long-run decline, 30 incidents against 47 the year before, down 36.2%. Burglary is also lower, 62 vs. 84, a drop of 26.2%. Those three together indicate a broad retreat in serious crime volume, while other larceny and vandalism stayed nearly flat year over year.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 71 incidents — about 34% below the 108 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 71, down 33% from 106 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Irving Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Avalon Park
70 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Irving Park's 71.
Open page →Garfield Ridge
70 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Irving Park's 71.
Open page →Bridgeport
65 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Irving Park's 71.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Irving Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.