Oakland Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Oakland is a small South Side lakefront neighborhood between Bronzeville and Kenwood, organized around the Metra Electric line. Predominantly mid-century apartment buildings; bordered by Lake Michigan to the east and Mandrake Park along the lakefront.
March 2026 was a quiet month for Oakland. No tracked category crossed the anomaly threshold — zero signals across the full crime mix, with every category landing within its expected range for the period.
The 12-month picture is more varied. Robbery is down 47.8% against the prior year — 12 incidents vs. 23 — the sharpest directional move in the data. Motor Vehicle Theft and Vandalism both ran above prior-year levels, up 22.9% and 20.2% respectively, while Burglary edged up 30.0% on a small base (13 vs. 10). Aggravated Assault is down 9.3% over the same window. None of these produced a single-month signal this period, which means the year-over-year shifts are gradual structural moves rather than acute changes.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Oakland compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Avalon Park
173 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Oakland's 166.
Open page →West Elsdon
156 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Oakland's 166.
Open page →Clearing
186 incidents over the past 12 months — 20 above Oakland's 166.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Oakland, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.