Garfield Ridge Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Garfield Ridge is a Southwest Side neighborhood on the western edge of Midway Airport, organized around Archer Avenue. Predominantly single-family ranch homes, with the Stevenson Expressway as the northern border and the Sanitary and Ship Canal to the south.
Three categories in Garfield Ridge registered sustained shifts in March 2026 — all three running below their multi-year baselines. This is not a single-month dip but a structural pattern: robbery, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism have each moved lower across the trailing 12 months relative to the 12 before.
Motor vehicle theft is down 49.6% against the prior 12-month period, 136 incidents vs. 270. Robbery shows a comparable move, down 50.0% (23 incidents vs. 46). Vandalism is also in sustained decline, off 26.2% at 273 incidents vs. 370. Every other tracked category — including aggravated assault, burglary, and other larceny — fell within normal range this month; sexual assault is the one exception, up 42.9% on small base counts (20 vs. 14), but did not register as a tracked signal.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 136, down 50% from 270 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 273, down 26% from 370 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 23, down 50% from 46 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Garfield Ridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Brighton Park
134 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Garfield Ridge's 136.
Open page →Oakland
134 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Garfield Ridge's 136.
Open page →Albany Park
143 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Garfield Ridge's 136.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Garfield Ridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.