Edgewater Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Edgewater is a North Side lakefront neighborhood between Foster Avenue and Devon Avenue, organized around the CTA Red Line's Bryn Mawr, Granville, and Thorndale stations. Mixed lakefront high-rises and brick two-flats, anchored by the Andersonville commercial strip on Clark Street and the Bryn Mawr Historic District.
Two sustained structural shifts defined Edgewater's June 2026 briefing — both pointing downward. Burglary and vandalism are each running well below their prior-year baselines across the trailing 12 months, a pattern that holds across multiple consecutive months rather than a single quiet period.
Burglary is down 32.9% against the prior 12 months — 102 incidents vs. 152 — and vandalism is down 47.4%, from 327 to 172. Every other tracked category was within normal range this month. The broader 12-month picture reinforces the same direction: robbery off 25.4%, aggravated assault off 27.2%, motor vehicle theft off 23.4%. Sexual assault is the one counter-move in the data, up 16.3% year-over-year, 57 incidents against 49 in the prior period.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 172, down 47% from 327 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 102, down 33% from 152 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Edgewater compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Brighton Park
102 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Edgewater's 102.
Open page →Uptown
102 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Edgewater's 102.
Open page →Belmont Cragin
100 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Edgewater's 102.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Edgewater, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.