Humboldt Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Humboldt Park is a West Side neighborhood organized around Humboldt Park itself (designed by William Le Baron Jenney), bordered by Western Avenue and Pulaski Road. Anchored by the Paseo Boricua commercial corridor on Division Street, the boulevard system that connects to Logan Square, and the historic Pulaski Park field house.
Four categories moved in Humboldt Park this March — two ran below trend for the month, two registered as structural sustained shifts pointing to longer-term change. The dominant shape is downward across violent crime and property damage, with robbery standing out as the deepest multi-year move.
Robbery has fallen 49.8% against the prior 12 months, from 309 incidents to 155 — the sustained-shift signal reflects a structural decline, not just a single quiet month. Aggravated assault and vandalism both ran below trend as well; vandalism's current 12-month total is 511, down from 616 the year before (-17.0%). Aggravated assault sits at 348 against 430 in the prior year (-19.1%). Everything else in the tracked categories — motor vehicle theft, other larceny, sexual assault — stayed within normal range and generated no signals this period.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 511 incidents — about 24% below the 668 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 348 incidents — about 19% below the 430 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 155, down 50% from 309 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 103, down 40% from 171 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Humboldt Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Grand Boulevard
514 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Humboldt Park's 511.
Open page →West Englewood
518 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Humboldt Park's 511.
Open page →Woodlawn
502 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Humboldt Park's 511.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Humboldt Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.