Humboldt Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Humboldt Park is a West Side neighborhood organized around Humboldt Park itself (designed by William Le Baron Jenney), bordered by Western Avenue and Pulaski Road. Anchored by the Paseo Boricua commercial corridor on Division Street, the boulevard system that connects to Logan Square, and the historic Pulaski Park field house.
Humboldt Park registered two sustained shifts in September 2026, both structural and pointing in opposite directions. This is not a single-month noise story: both signals reflect multi-month patterns in the trailing 12-month window, one a prolonged decline in robbery, one a prolonged rise in motor vehicle theft. Every other tracked category held within its normal range.
Robbery is down 27.1% against the prior 12 months, 167 incidents versus 229, a durable improvement that has built across consecutive months. Motor vehicle theft moved the other direction, up 38.6% year over year, 567 incidents against 409, and it is the stronger of the two signals. The remaining categories, including aggravated assault, burglary, and homicide, each ran closer to their prior-year levels and did not cross any threshold this month.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 567, up 39% from 409 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 167, down 27% from 229 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Humboldt Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Auburn Gresham
523 incidents over the past 12 months — 44 below Humboldt Park's 567.
Open page →Near North Side
449 incidents over the past 12 months — 118 below Humboldt Park's 567.
Open page →Greater Grand Crossing
443 incidents over the past 12 months — 124 below Humboldt Park's 567.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Humboldt Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.