Dunning Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Dunning is a Northwest Side neighborhood on the city's western edge, organized around Irving Park Road and the Norridge border. Includes Wright College, the historic site of the Cook County Poor Farm and asylum (now Wright Park), and predominantly bungalow housing.
March 2026 was a quiet month in Dunning. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold — zero signals across all flag types — and the month's picture is best understood through the 12-month trend rather than any single-month move.
The structural direction across Dunning is broadly downward. Burglary is down 32.1% against the prior 12 months (38 incidents vs. 56), robbery is down 22.2% (14 vs. 18), and vandalism, motor vehicle theft, and other larceny are all running 15–17% below the prior year. Aggravated assault is roughly flat, down 3.8% (51 vs. 53). Sexual assault is the one category moving the other way — 16 incidents over the current 12 months against 12 in the prior year, a 33.3% increase — though the counts are small enough that the month produced no anomaly signal.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Dunning compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Ashburn
332 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 above Dunning's 318.
Open page →Armour Square
300 incidents over the past 12 months — 18 below Dunning's 318.
Open page →Norwood Park
352 incidents over the past 12 months — 34 above Dunning's 318.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Dunning, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.