Belmont Cragin Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Belmont Cragin is a Northwest Side neighborhood between the Metra Milwaukee District-North Line and the Elmwood Park border, organized around the Belmont and Cragin commercial corridors. Predominantly bungalows and two-flats on a tight grid, named for the Cragin Brothers' tin-plate factory that once dominated the area.
Belmont Cragin had a structurally quiet March 2026. Only one category registered a signal — robbery, on a sustained downward shift — and every other tracked category landed within its normal range.
Robbery is down 40.7% over the trailing 12 months against the prior year: 83 incidents vs. 140. That's a multi-year structural move, not a single-month dip. Aggravated assault and sexual assault also show double-digit 12-month declines (-16.0% and -33.3%, respectively), though neither crossed the signal threshold this month. Arson, with just 2 incidents over the past 12 months against 7 the year before, continues at near-zero levels.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 83, down 41% from 140 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Belmont Cragin compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Uptown
85 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Belmont Cragin's 83.
Open page →Logan Square
89 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Belmont Cragin's 83.
Open page →Rogers Park
75 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Belmont Cragin's 83.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Belmont Cragin, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.