Ashburn Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Ashburn is a Southwest Side residential neighborhood between Western Avenue and Cicero Avenue, anchored by the 79th Street commercial corridor. Predominantly mid-century single-family bungalows and ranch homes, with Bogan High School and Wrightwood Park as community anchors.
Three categories moved in Ashburn this March — one fresh spike and two sustained structural shifts, both pointing downward. The dominant story across the trailing 12 months is a broad decline in property crime, with two of the three signals confirming that longer pattern rather than breaking it.
Sexual assault is the outlier: 31 incidents in the current 12-month window against a baseline of 18.21, the one above-trend signal this briefing. Burglary and motor vehicle theft are each running well below the prior year on a structural basis — burglary down 52.9% (41 vs 87) and motor vehicle theft down 33.1% (238 vs 356) against the prior 12 months. Everything else, including robbery, aggravated assault, and vandalism, came in within range.
Notable signals 1
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 31 incidents — about 70% above the 18 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 238, down 33% from 356 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 41, down 53% from 87 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Ashburn compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Albany Park
33 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Ashburn's 31.
Open page →Brighton Park
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Ashburn's 31.
Open page →Grand Boulevard
33 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Ashburn's 31.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Ashburn, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.