Washington Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Washington Park is a South Side neighborhood organized around Washington Park itself (designed by Frederick Law Olmsted) and the Garfield Boulevard commercial corridor. Anchored by the DuSable Black History Museum, the Green Line's Garfield station, and the historic Aldine Square.
March 2026 was a quiet month in Washington Park. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold — zero signals across all flag types — making this one of the calmer months in recent data.
The 12-month trends do the work here. Homicide is down 66.7% against the prior year, 4 incidents vs. 12. Robbery is down 30.5%, 41 vs. 59. Motor vehicle theft is off 11.9%, 244 vs. 277. Burglary is the one category moving in the other direction, up 13.5% over the same period (42 vs. 37), though the absolute count remains low. Everything else — aggravated assault, other larceny, vandalism, sexual assault — ran within a few percent of prior-year levels.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Washington Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
South Deering
366 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Washington Park's 366.
Open page →Garfield Ridge
363 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Washington Park's 366.
Open page →West Garfield Park
363 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Washington Park's 366.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Washington Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.