Washington Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Washington Park is a South Side neighborhood organized around Washington Park itself (designed by Frederick Law Olmsted) and the Garfield Boulevard commercial corridor. Anchored by the DuSable Black History Museum, the Green Line's Garfield station, and the historic Aldine Square.
June 2026 was a quiet month for Washington Park. No tracked category crossed the anomaly threshold — zero signals across all flag types — making this one of the calmer months in recent briefings. The broader picture is still worth reading in the 12-month context rather than this single quiet period.
Across the trailing 12 months, the structural direction is broadly downward. Homicide fell 83.3% against the prior year (2 incidents vs 12), vandalism dropped 17.1% (277 vs 334), and robbery is down 16.7% (40 vs 48). Motor vehicle theft and sexual assault also ran below their prior-year levels. Burglary is the one category moving in the opposite direction — up 8.3% (39 vs 36) — but at those volumes the move is small. Every other tracked category held within or below its prior-year range.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Washington Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Archer Heights
387 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Washington Park's 380.
Open page →South Deering
373 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Washington Park's 380.
Open page →Armour Square
369 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 below Washington Park's 380.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Washington Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.