South Deering Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
South Deering is a Far Southeast Side neighborhood between the Calumet River and the Bishop Ford Expressway, including the Trumbull Park Homes and the former Wisconsin Steel mill site. Predominantly single-family homes, with extensive wetland and forest-preserve borders along Wolf Lake.
South Deering had two notable signals in September 2026, one single-month and one structural. Burglary ran below trend this month, the strongest individual signal. Robbery registered as a sustained shift downward, a multi-month structural move rather than a one-month dip. The rest of the tracked categories were within normal range.
Robbery is the clearest long-term story: 35 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 63 in the year before, a 44.4% reduction. Burglary also sits well below its recent pace, 28 incidents in the current 12 months against 37 in the prior year, down 24.3%. Vandalism and aggravated assault are both lower year-over-year as well, down 18.8% and 15.8% respectively, though neither crossed a signal threshold this month. Motor vehicle theft, at 203 incidents against 195 in the prior 12 months, is the one category moving in the other direction.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 28 incidents — about 39% below the 46 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 35, down 44% from 63 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How South Deering compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
West Elsdon
28 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below South Deering's 28.
Open page →Calumet Heights
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above South Deering's 28.
Open page →Pullman
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above South Deering's 28.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for South Deering, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.