South Deering Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
South Deering is a Far Southeast Side neighborhood between the Calumet River and the Bishop Ford Expressway, including the Trumbull Park Homes and the former Wisconsin Steel mill site. Predominantly single-family homes, with extensive wetland and forest-preserve borders along Wolf Lake.
March 2026 was a quiet month for South Deering — no category crossed the anomaly threshold, and the tracked signal count is zero. The more meaningful picture is in the 12-month totals, which show a neighborhood moving in two directions at once: property crime broadly lower, violent crime mixed.
Aggravated assault is down 22.7% against the prior 12 months (102 incidents vs. 132), and sexual assault is down 40.0% (9 vs. 15). Vandalism and other larceny are also lower year-over-year, down 18.9% and 12.2% respectively. Running against that: motor vehicle theft is up 13.0% (208 vs. 184) and robbery is up 17.8% (53 vs. 45), the two categories pulling in the opposite direction from the broader trend.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How South Deering compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Washington Park
366 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below South Deering's 366.
Open page →Garfield Ridge
363 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below South Deering's 366.
Open page →West Garfield Park
363 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below South Deering's 366.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for South Deering, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.