West Garfield Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
West Garfield Park is a West Side neighborhood organized around Garfield Park itself, bordered by the Eisenhower Expressway and the historic Madison Street commercial corridor. Anchored by the Garfield Park Conservatory, the CTA Green Line's Conservatory station, and the Pulaski commercial strip.
West Garfield Park's March 2026 briefing is a single-signal month. One category moved — robbery registered a below-trend drop — and every other tracked category came in within its normal range. The structural picture is broadly downward across violent crime, with the robbery move reinforcing a 12-month pattern.
Robbery is down 24.3% against the prior 12 months — 134 incidents vs. 177 the year before. Aggravated assault follows a similar trajectory at -23.5% (251 vs. 328). The two categories where volume is running above prior-year levels — other larceny at +10.3% and sexual assault at +80.0% — are the ones to watch next month, though neither crossed the anomaly threshold this period.
Notable signals 1
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 134 incidents — about 45% below the 243 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How West Garfield Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Auburn Gresham
140 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above West Garfield Park's 134.
Open page →Lake View
143 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 above West Garfield Park's 134.
Open page →West Town
124 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below West Garfield Park's 134.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for West Garfield Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.