Mar Lee other larceny rose 200% against its multi-year baseline, the strongest single signal in Denver this month. The same category topped the rankings across every slot in the top five, with Hale, Jefferson Park, East Colfax, and Civic Center all registering fresh spikes alongside Mar Lee. Other larceny is the structural story of September 2026.
Citywide volume is down 7.2% against the prior 12 months, 39,038 incidents against 42,052 in the year before. The broader mix still tilts toward declines: 70 below-trend signals and 63 sustained-shift signals against 20 spikes and 2 streak breaks, across 78 neighborhoods. The other-larceny spikes are the exception in an otherwise softening picture.
The concentration of one category across five distinct neighborhoods is the detail to watch going into October. This is the first month other larceny has topped the citywide rankings, so there is no multi-month run to confirm a structural shift yet. If the pattern holds across neighborhoods as different as Mar Lee and Civic Center, next month's briefing will have more to say about whether September was a one-month anomaly or the start of a sustained move.
Sustained drops worth naming
Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 30% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for September were issued from data through August 2026. 8 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (89%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 218[192–243] | 225 | 3.0% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 15[6–23] | 10 | 48.5% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 329[251–407] | 307 | 7.2% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 2[0–6] | 5 | 61.1% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 233[86–386] | 318 | 26.8% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1123[1029–1209] | 990 | 13.4% | MISS |
| Robbery | 71[51–90] | 76 | 7.1% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 502[276–712] | 586 | 14.4% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 500[418–580] | 535 | 6.5% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “September 2026 — Denver,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /denver/2026/september