Jefferson Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Jefferson Park is a northwest neighborhood between Interstate 25 and Federal Boulevard, just across the South Platte from downtown. The namesake park anchors the residential grid; the southern edge along West 23rd Avenue has seen significant townhouse-and-condo redevelopment in recent years.
Jefferson Park registered one tracked signal in June 2026 — a sustained structural shift in motor vehicle theft, not a single noisy month but a multi-month pattern that has reshaped the trailing 12-month total. Every other tracked category held within its normal range.
Motor vehicle theft is down 51.0% against the prior 12 months, 47 incidents vs. 96 in the year before — the sharpest 12-month move in the neighborhood's tracked data this briefing. The remaining categories are mixed but none crossed an anomaly threshold: theft from vehicle is up 14.6% (102 vs. 89), aggravated assault up 27.3% (14 vs. 11), and robbery down 25.0% (9 vs. 12), all on small absolute counts that kept them inside normal variation.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 47, down 51% from 96 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Jefferson Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Goldsmith
48 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Jefferson Park's 47.
Open page →Hale
46 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Jefferson Park's 47.
Open page →Overland
46 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Jefferson Park's 47.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Jefferson Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.