Jefferson Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Jefferson Park is a northwest neighborhood between Interstate 25 and Federal Boulevard, just across the South Platte from downtown. The namesake park anchors the residential grid; the southern edge along West 23rd Avenue has seen significant townhouse-and-condo redevelopment in recent years.
Four categories moved in Jefferson Park this August: one spike, one below-trend signal, and two sustained shifts. The shape is split, with property crime pulling in opposite directions. Other larceny is the dominant story on the upside, while motor vehicle theft is the clearest move in the other direction. The two sustained shifts suggest the larceny increase is not a single noisy month.
Other larceny stands at 141 incidents over the trailing 12 months, against 92 in the prior year, a 53.3% increase. Motor vehicle theft ran below trend this month and is also down sharply on the 12-month view, 46 incidents against 78 the year before, a 41.0% decline. Vandalism and theft from vehicle are also up year-over-year, 25.0% and 19.3% respectively, while robbery has fallen 41.7% over the same window. Everything else in the tracked categories held within a narrower range than those headline movers.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 141 incidents — about 37% above the 103 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 46 incidents — about 49% below the 90 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 141, up 53% from 92 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 46, down 41% from 78 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Jefferson Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Berkeley
142 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Jefferson Park's 141.
Open page →Hampden South
145 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Jefferson Park's 141.
Open page →University
145 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Jefferson Park's 141.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Jefferson Parkdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Jefferson Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 6 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Jefferson Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.