South Park Hill aggravated assault is the headline signal for October 2025 — a sharp spike that stands out as the most statistically distinct move in the city this month. University Hills other-larceny had been the citywide lead category last month, but other-larceny's reach has now broadened well beyond a single neighborhood, making it the structural backdrop rather than the fresh story.
Citywide volume is down 10.3% against the prior 12 months — 41,149 incidents against 45,863. The signal mix leans heavily toward declines: 105 below-trend signals and 73 sustained-shift signals, against 17 fresh spikes across 78 neighborhoods. The other-larceny spikes are concentrated in multiple neighborhoods simultaneously — Globeville, East Colfax, and University all appear in the top five alongside University Hills — pointing to a category-wide move rather than an isolated block-level pattern.
October's picture is a split: the broader crime volume continues a multi-month decline, while other-larceny is running above trend across a wide band of Denver neighborhoods. The South Park Hill aggravated assault spike is new this month and merits watching — whether it extends into November or resolves as a single-month move will be the first test of its significance.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 41% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for October were issued from data through September 2025. 8 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (89%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 239[216–264] | 222 | 7.5% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 9[1–17] | 16 | 46.3% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 395[320–475] | 394 | 0.3% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 4[1–7] | 2 | 118.9% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 434[309–549] | 418 | 3.8% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1101[1025–1180] | 1107 | 0.5% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 103[84–124] | 65 | 58.9% | MISS |
| Theft from Vehicle | 549[380–723] | 714 | 23.1% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 590[513–661] | 647 | 8.9% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “October 2025 — Denver,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /denver/2025/october