Montclair burglary is the headline of February 2025 — a sharp spike that stands as the most prominent fresh signal in the city this month. University Hills other-larceny has been the prior lead and remains active, but the new signal is in a different bucket: burglary, in a neighborhood where the broader other-larceny trend is also running hot. Both categories in Montclair appear in the top five, making it the most concentrated anomaly neighborhood this briefing.
Citywide volume is down 13.6% against the prior 12 months — 44,335 incidents versus 51,302 the year before. That context matters: the dominant signal mix is strongly tilted toward declines, with 115 below-trend signals and 72 sustained-shift signals across 78 neighborhoods. The 23 spikes stand out against that backdrop. Other-larceny spikes in Central Park and College View - South Platte also register in the top five, suggesting the category is moving across multiple parts of the city, not just in isolated pockets.
The other-larceny pattern across multiple neighborhoods is new this month — University Hills led last month, but the category is now showing up in Central Park, Montclair, and College View - South Platte simultaneously. Whether this is a one-month cluster or the start of a broader shift is something February's data alone cannot confirm. The structural citywide decline holds; the distribution of where incidents are occurring is the thing to watch going forward.
Sustained drops worth naming
Theft from Vehicle ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 29% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for February were issued from data through January 2025. 6 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (67%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 150[127–174] | 182 | 17.5% | MISS |
| Arson | 9[1–15] | 19 | 55.4% | MISS |
| Burglary | 349[269–432] | 301 | 16.0% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 1[0–5] | 1 | 34.3% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 559[422–691] | 437 | 27.8% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 814[728–896] | 811 | 0.4% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 76[57–94] | 67 | 13.0% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 514[337–669] | 638 | 19.4% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 555[483–627] | 478 | 16.1% | MISS |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “February 2025 — Denver,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /denver/2025/february