Central Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Central Park is a master-planned mixed-use neighborhood in northeast Denver, built on the footprint of the former Stapleton airport (the airport closed in 1995 and the neighborhood was originally named Stapleton; the name was changed to Central Park in 2020). Today it's a New Urbanist development of single-family homes, townhouses, and walkable town-center retail along East 29th Avenue.
August 2026 produced a single notable signal in Central Park: a sustained structural shift in motor vehicle theft, running well below the prior 12-month period. Every other tracked category was within its normal range this month.
Motor vehicle theft is down 40.1% against the prior 12 months, 194 incidents compared to 324 in the year before. That is not a one-month dip but a multi-month structural move, which is what separates it from a routine quiet reading. Aggravated assault is the one counter-trend, up 22.7% year-over-year (92 incidents vs. 75), though it did not cross the threshold for a signal this period. Robbery, burglary, theft from vehicle, and vandalism are all within a few percent of prior-year levels.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 194, down 40% from 324 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Central Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Montbello
154 incidents over the past 12 months — 40 below Central Park's 194.
Open page →Capitol Hill
149 incidents over the past 12 months — 45 below Central Park's 194.
Open page →Gateway - Green Valley Ranch
253 incidents over the past 12 months — 59 above Central Park's 194.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Central Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.