Cleveland Park Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Cleveland Park is the upper-Northwest neighborhood organized around the Connecticut Avenue retail strip and the Cleveland Park Metro stop, with Victorian and early-20th-century houses spreading east toward Rock Creek Park. The cluster reaches south through Woodley Park to the Marriott Wardman Park area and west into Massachusetts Avenue Heights along Embassy Row.
Cleveland Park's June 2026 briefing comes down to a single signal: one streak break in homicide, with every other tracked category either flat or moving within normal range. That is a narrow month — one category moved, one flag total.
The streak break in homicide is the kind of rare-event signal that carries weight precisely because the baseline was so quiet; the specific count is not available in this briefing window, so the signal is structural rather than volumetric. Elsewhere, the 12-month picture is broadly downward: robbery is at 1 incident against 11 in the prior year (down 90.9%), burglary at 4 against 11 (down 63.6%), and motor vehicle theft down 36.7% to 19. Other larceny is the one category running above the prior year, up 6.4% to 316 incidents, but no anomaly threshold was crossed there this month.
Notable signals 1
Homicide
First incident since May 2022 — a 4-year gap ended this month.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Cleveland Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month homicide volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable homicide levels.”
Deanwood
2 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Cleveland Park's 2.
Open page →Downtown
2 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Cleveland Park's 2.
Open page →Friendship Heights
2 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Cleveland Park's 2.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Cleveland Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.