Woodridge motor vehicle theft is the lead signal this month, registering the sharpest deviation from baseline across all tracked Washington DC neighborhoods. Glover Park other-larceny had been the top-ranked category in the prior briefing, but with other-larceny now appearing in multiple neighborhoods — Glover Park and North Cleveland Park both show spikes — the fresh story is the vehicle theft move in Woodridge.
Citywide volume is down 14.4% against the prior 12 months — 28,464 incidents against 33,245. The bulk of the 54 tracked signals lean in one direction: 40 sustained-shift signals and 9 below-trend signals against just 3 spikes. Two zero-event signals round out the mix. Aggravated assault is running below trend in both Brookland and Howard University, a consistent pattern across the northeast quadrant this period.
The dominant structural story remains the citywide volume decline, now sustained across the trailing 12 months. The Woodridge vehicle theft move is worth watching as a potential reversal in a category that had been quiet, but a single month of deviation against a broad downtrend is not a pattern. With 41 neighborhoods generating signals and most of them reflecting continued declines, this briefing is largely a continuation of the trend established in prior months.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 29% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for February were issued from data through January 2025. 7 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (88%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 67[41–94] | 65 | 3.8% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 66[20–114] | 77 | 14.2% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 15[8–22] | 13 | 15.9% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 493[342–634] | 406 | 21.4% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 866[604–1135] | 788 | 9.9% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 225[127–317] | 106 | 111.9% | MISS |
| Sexual Assault | 11[1–21] | 5 | 112.3% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 343[140–539] | 432 | 20.6% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “February 2025 — Washington DC,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /dc/2025/february