Woodridge Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Woodridge is the Northeast neighborhood east of the Arboretum, with curving streets and detached houses set on a wooded ridge above the rail yards. The cluster includes Fort Lincoln, a planned mid-century residential development on the city's northeast corner, and Gateway, the small commercial pocket along New York Avenue.
Four categories moved in Woodridge this September, split evenly between one-month below-trend signals and longer structural shifts. Two categories, robbery and theft from vehicle, ran below trend in the month itself. Theft from vehicle also registers as a sustained shift, meaning the decline is structural across the trailing 12 months, not just a quiet September. The overall shape is broadly downward across property and violent crime.
Robbery is the sharpest signal: 8 incidents in the current 12-month window against 12 in the prior year, a 33.3% reduction. Theft from vehicle backs that up with a 40.9% year-over-year drop, 68 incidents vs. 115. Motor vehicle theft, while not among the top signals this month, shows the same direction at a steeper magnitude, 69 incidents against 142 in the prior 12 months, a 51.4% decline. The remaining categories, burglary and other larceny, are also lower year-over-year, and nothing in Woodridge registered an above-trend move this month.
Notable signals 2
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 8 incidents — about 72% below the 28 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 68 incidents — about 65% below the 197 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 69, down 51% from 142 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 68, down 41% from 115 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Woodridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
North Michigan Park
9 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Woodridge's 8.
Open page →Friendship Heights
10 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Woodridge's 8.
Open page →Saint Elizabeths
6 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Woodridge's 8.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Woodridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.