CUF other larceny is the sharpest signal in Cincinnati this month — a fresh spike that stands out as the most extreme move across all 50 neighborhoods tracked. No prior-month lead is carrying over; this is a new combination at the top of the rankings. Downtown robbery and Riverside_Sedamsville other larceny round out a month where larceny and robbery are driving most of the fresh movement.
Citywide volume is essentially flat — 14,442 incidents against 14,497 in the prior 12 months, a 0.4% decline. The mix is heavily weighted toward spikes: 32 fresh spike signals against 5 below-trend signals, across 67 total anomalies in 50 neighborhoods. Mt. Airy accounts for two of the top five signals — both aggravated assault and robbery moved there this month.
With lead_run_length at one month and no persistent combo in the backdrop, May 2025 reads as a reset rather than a continuation. The citywide volume trend is stable, but the concentration of spikes — 32 across 50 neighborhoods — is worth tracking into June to see whether this is a single noisy month or the start of a directional shift.
Sustained drops worth naming
Aggravated Assault ran above trend in the trailing 12 months — 30% up from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for May were issued from data through April 2025. 6 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (75%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 84[70–98] | 67 | 24.7% | MISS |
| Burglary | 143[109–177] | 169 | 15.4% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 5[1–9] | 5 | 3.5% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 316[189–446] | 224 | 41.1% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 404[348–459] | 409 | 1.2% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 58[40–75] | 59 | 2.2% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 12[4–19] | 12 | 3.7% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 241[173–306] | 325 | 25.8% | MISS |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “May 2025 — Cincinnati,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /cincinnati/2025/may