Cincinnati Crime Rate — April 2025

Downtown robbery is the headline signal for April 2025 — the sharpest single-category move this briefing, standing out in a month otherwise dominated by other-larceny activity across the city. CUF's other-larceny pattern was the citywide lead category last month, and it remains the persistent backdrop here, but the fresh story is the Downtown robbery shift.

Citywide volume is down 3.8% against the prior 12 months — 14,268 incidents against 14,838. The signal mix this month is heavily tilted toward above-trend moves: 35 spikes and 18 sustained-shift signals against just 5 below-trend signals, across 50 neighborhoods. Other larceny is showing up across multiple parts of the city — CUF, East Westwood, and Riverside_Sedamsville all registered spikes in that category — while Mt. Airy robbery also broke above trend.

With 68 total signals and 50 neighborhoods flagging at least one move, this is an unusually active month by recent Cincinnati standards. The slight year-over-year volume decline softens the picture somewhat, but the spike-heavy breakdown and the breadth across neighborhoods make April 2025 a month to track closely as May's data comes in.

Sustained drops worth naming

Aggravated Assault ran above trend in the trailing 12 months — 31% up from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for April were issued from data through March 2025. 8 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.