Cincinnati Crime Rate — March 2025

CUF other larceny is the standout signal in March 2025 — a sharp above-trend move that leads all Cincinnati neighborhoods this briefing. With no recurring lead to displace, this is a clean first-time signal. Downtown robbery and East Westwood other larceny both appear in the top five, suggesting the larceny and robbery categories are active across multiple parts of the city simultaneously.

Citywide volume is down 4.9% against the prior 12 months — 14,200 incidents against 14,928 the year before. Despite that overall decline, the signal mix this month is heavily weighted toward upward moves: 32 spikes and 22 sustained-shift signals against just 5 below-trend signals across 50 neighborhoods. Mt. Airy robbery and Northside aggravated assault both registered fresh spikes, adding to the multi-neighborhood pattern.

The 69 total signals and the spike-heavy mix make March an active briefing against a backdrop of declining annual volume — a combination that reflects localized acceleration rather than a broad citywide reversal. Whether the larceny and robbery moves across CUF, East Westwood, and Downtown persist into April will determine if this is a one-month cluster or the start of a sustained shift.

Sustained drops worth naming

Aggravated Assault ran above trend in the trailing 12 months — 26% up from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for March were issued from data through February 2025. 7 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (88%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.