Cincinnati Crime Rate — February 2025

Corryville theft from vehicle is the headline signal this month — an unusually sharp move against its multi-year baseline, the strongest single-category shift in the Cincinnati briefing. CUF other-larceny was last month's lead and remains in the top rankings, but a new category — theft from vehicle — is the one that moved most distinctly in February 2025.

Citywide volume is down 6.3% against the prior 12 months, 14,139 incidents against 15,086 the year before. The signal mix runs heavily toward fresh spikes: 29 spike signals against 6 below-trend signals across 50 neighborhoods, with 19 sustained-shift signals adding to the picture. East Westwood other-larceny and Northside aggravated assault both appear in the top five alongside Corryville, suggesting the spike activity is spread across distinct parts of the city.

With 63 total signals and 50 neighborhoods registering movement, this is not a quiet month. The structural decline in citywide volume holds — six consecutive months of below-prior-year totals — but the spike-heavy mix this briefing is worth tracking. If theft-from-vehicle and other-larceny maintain this pace into March, the category pattern will be worth revisiting.

Sustained drops worth naming

Aggravated Assault ran above trend in the trailing 12 months — 25% up from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for February were issued from data through January 2025. 6 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (75%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.