Northside Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Northside is a West Side neighborhood along Hamilton Avenue and Spring Grove Avenue, between Camp Washington and College Hill. Anchored by the Hamilton Avenue commercial district at Northside Plaza and the long-running Northside business strip.
June 2026 was a quiet month for Northside — no tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold, and the flag count for the period is zero. The cleaner signal this briefing is in the 12-month trend lines rather than any single-month move.
Motor vehicle theft is down 23.5% against the prior 12 months (62 incidents vs. 81), and other larceny is down 14.4% (77 vs. 90) — two of the neighborhood's higher-volume property categories both running below their prior-year pace. Moving the other direction: robbery is up 45.5% over the same window (16 vs. 11), and theft from vehicle is up 19.4% (86 vs. 72). Those are small absolute counts, but the directional split — property theft declining while robbery and theft-from-vehicle rise — is the structural story this month. Burglary and aggravated assault were essentially flat year-over-year.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Northside compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Lower Price Hill_Queensgate
71 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Northside's 77.
Open page →Madisonville
65 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 below Northside's 77.
Open page →Mt. Auburn
62 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Northside's 77.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Northside, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.