Archived snapshotJanuary 2025 · narrative + chart preserved as published · live data has moved on
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Cincinnati · monthly briefing

Cincinnati Crime Rate — January 2025

CUF other larceny ran 110% above its multi-year baseline.

CUF other larceny is the headline of January 2025 — a sharp single-month spike that registered as the most statistically extreme signal in Cincinnati this briefing. No prior-month lead carries over as a recurring backdrop; this combination is new to the top of the rankings. The spike stands apart from the rest of the month's activity in both category and magnitude.

Citywide volume is down 7.3% against the prior 12 months — 14,207 incidents against 15,320 the year before. The signal mix tells a different story than that decline: 30 spikes against only 4 below-trend signals, with 22 sustained-shift signals and 8 zero-event categories rounding out the 64 total signals across 50 neighborhoods. Corryville theft from vehicle and Northside aggravated assault both appear in the top five, each registering fresh spikes this month.

The citywide downward trend is real, but the January mix — dominated by spikes rather than drops — suggests the aggregate number is being pulled by a subset of quiet neighborhoods while others moved up. Whether the CUF other-larceny spike and the parallel theft-from-vehicle moves in Corryville and Mt. Auburn cluster into a sustained pattern is the question to track in the February briefing.

FIG 1 · LEAD ANOMALYOTHER LARCENY · CUF · 24-MO COUNT
03876μ 21.8 · σ 15.5 · trailing 12-mo2023-022025-01ARCHIVED
CUF other larceny, monthly count over 24 months ending in January 2025. The dashed line is the trailing-12-month mean for context. The final bar (highlighted) is January. Frozen view as published.

Sustained drops worth naming

Aggravated Assault ran above trend in the trailing 12 months — 26% up from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

CITEPublic Analyst.ai, “January 2025Cincinnati,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /cincinnati/2025/january