Mt. Auburn Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Mt. Auburn is a hillside neighborhood immediately north of downtown, between Over-the-Rhine and Walnut Hills. Mostly historic Italianate and Queen Anne homes on steep streets, with the Christ Hospital medical campus along Auburn Avenue at the south end.
September 2026 produced a single notable signal in Mt. Auburn: motor vehicle theft has shifted structurally downward over the trailing 12 months. This is not a one-month dip but a sustained multi-month compression, the only tracked category that cleared the anomaly threshold this briefing. Everything else, burglary, other larceny, theft from vehicle, aggravated assault, and sexual assault, stayed within range or moved modestly without crossing into signal territory.
Motor vehicle theft is down 50.8% against the prior 12-month period, 30 incidents in the current window against 61 in the year before. Theft from vehicle also ran lower, off 22.1% year-over-year (74 vs. 95), though not enough to register as a structural shift on its own. On the other side, other larceny climbed 48.8% over the same comparison period, 64 vs. 43 incidents, a category to watch even if it did not generate a signal this month.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 30, down 51% from 61 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Mt. Auburn compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
East Walnut Hills
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Mt. Auburn's 30.
Open page →Lower Price Hill_Queensgate
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Mt. Auburn's 30.
Open page →Winton Hills
32 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Mt. Auburn's 30.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mt. Auburn, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.