Hegewisch vandalism is the lead signal for March 2026 — a sharp move above its multi-year baseline, the most prominent fresh signal in a month that otherwise skews toward sustained declines. There is no recurring lead from prior months to displace; this is a clean new story at the top of the rankings.
Citywide volume is down 8.6% against the prior 12 months — 130,075 incidents against 142,267 the year before. The signal mix is weighted heavily toward structural improvement: 69 sustained-shift signals and 29 below-trend moves against 14 fresh spikes across 77 neighborhoods. Armour Square sexual assault and Gage Park other-larceny both registered spikes in the top five, pulling in two separate categories alongside the Hegewisch vandalism lead.
With 114 total signals and a clear downward trend in volume, March reads as a continuation of the multi-month decline rather than a reversal. The fresh spikes in Hegewisch and Armour Square are worth tracking in April — one month of movement in a low-base neighborhood is not yet a pattern, but both categories appeared in more than one neighborhood this period.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 26% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
Public Analyst.ai, “March 2026 — Chicago,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /chicago/2026/march