Armour Square sexual assault is the lead signal this month — a fresh spike that stands as the most statistically pronounced move in Chicago's March 2026 briefing. Hegewisch vandalism had held the top of the rankings last month, but the dominant category this time is sexual assault, which also appears in Lower West Side in the top five. Both neighborhoods moved independently, making this a category-level pattern rather than a single isolated shift.
Citywide volume is down 8.5% against the prior 12 months — 130,120 incidents against 142,267 the year before. The signal mix this month is broad: 69 sustained-shift signals and 29 below-trend signals run alongside 14 fresh spikes across 77 neighborhoods. Gage Park other-larceny and Montclare other-larceny both appear in the top five, adding a property-crime thread alongside the assault signals.
With 114 total signals and two distinct categories driving the top rankings, March is a more active briefing than the prior month. The sustained-shift count — 69 — remains the structural backbone, reflecting a multi-month trend of declining baseline volume. The sexual assault signals in Armour Square and Lower West Side are new this period and warrant tracking in April to determine whether they persist or revert.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 26% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
Public Analyst.ai, “March 2026 — Chicago,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /chicago/2026/march