Montclare Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Montclare is a Northwest Side residential neighborhood on the Elmwood Park border, organized around Grand Avenue and the Metra Milwaukee District-West Line. Predominantly single-family bungalows on a quiet grid, named for an early-20th-century real-estate development.
March 2026 brought four signals across Montclare — two spikes, one streak break, and one sustained shift. The headline is upward pressure across multiple categories, not a single outlier: other larceny and aggravated assault both spiked in the same month, while a homicide streak break added a structurally different kind of signal to the mix.
Other larceny is the largest mover by volume: 200 incidents in the current 12-month window against 120 in the prior year, a 66.7% rise. Aggravated assault is up 57.9% over the same period — 30 incidents vs. 19. The homicide streak break is a separate signal type: a category surfacing after a quiet gap, distinct from the volume-driven spikes. Burglary ran the other direction, down 40.0% year-over-year, and robbery fell 20.0% — the two categories pulling against the otherwise upward month.
Notable signals 3
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 200 incidents — about 59% above the 125 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 30 incidents — about 44% above the 21 average from prior years.
Homicide
First incident since April 2023 — a 3-year gap ended this month.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 200, up 67% from 120 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Montclare compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Jefferson Park
202 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Montclare's 200.
Open page →Hermosa
192 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Montclare's 200.
Open page →East Side
213 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 above Montclare's 200.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Montclare, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.