Chicago Crime Rate — April 2026

Hegewisch vandalism is the lead signal for April 2026 — a sharp above-trend move that displaces last month's Armour Square sexual assault as the top-ranked combo. Armour Square remains in the top five this month, so the category hasn't resolved; the briefing simply surfaces a fresher, more statistically distinct signal in a different neighborhood and bucket.

Citywide volume is down 8.8% against the prior 12 months — 129,085 incidents against 141,618. The signal mix leans heavily toward structural improvement: 79 sustained-shift signals and 32 below-trend moves, against 11 fresh spikes across 77 neighborhoods. Gage Park other-larceny and Lower West Side sexual assault both appear in the top five, indicating the spike activity this month is scattered across categories rather than concentrated in one.

With 122 total signals and a broad base of 77 neighborhoods, April is an active briefing rather than a quiet one. The citywide decline is now well-established — the 8.8% year-over-year gap is not a new development. The Hegewisch vandalism move and the continued sexual assault signals in multiple neighborhoods are the threads to track into May.

Sustained drops worth naming

Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 34% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for April were issued from data through March 2026. 9 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.