Gage Park other larceny is the headline signal this month, a fresh spike that tops the citywide rankings for the first time. That displaces the prior lead: Hegewisch vandalism had been the top-ranked combo last month and remains in the top five, but the rotating category — larceny replacing vandalism — is what drives the lead story. The Gage Park move is the sharpest single-neighborhood signal in this briefing.
Citywide volume is down 6.7% against the prior 12 months — 128,168 incidents against 137,418. That decline is the structural backdrop to a month with 12 spikes, 40 below-trend signals, and 69 sustained-shift signals across 77 neighborhoods. The spike cluster is notable: Lower West Side and Douglas both show sexual assault signals, and Beverly shows a fresh aggravated assault signal — three of the top five involve violent categories.
The broader trend remains a multi-year decline, and 69 sustained-shift signals confirm that compression is still widespread. The violent-category spikes in Lower West Side, Beverly, and Douglas are each new to the rankings this month and worth tracking in August to determine whether they persist or resolve as single-month noise. The structural picture holds; the spike mix is the variable to watch.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 33% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for July were issued from data through June 2026. 8 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (89%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 1248[1115–1379] | 1133 | 10.1% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 42[25–58] | 31 | 33.8% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 605[431–785] | 502 | 20.4% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 52[33–71] | 37 | 39.1% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 2107[1237–2980] | 1577 | 33.6% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 6065[4895–7241] | 4467 | 35.8% | MISS |
| Robbery | 531[310–733] | 416 | 27.6% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 283[249–318] | 256 | 10.7% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 2464[2219–2716] | 2308 | 6.7% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “July 2026 — Chicago,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /chicago/2026/july