Beverly Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Beverly is a Far South Side neighborhood on the Blue Island Ridge, organized around the Metra Rock Island District line and the 95th Street and Western Avenue commercial corridors. Predominantly single-family homes on tree-lined streets, including the historic Givins Castle and the highest natural elevation in Chicago.
Two categories moved in Beverly in August 2026, one fresh spike and one structural shift, against an otherwise stable month. Aggravated assault registered the strongest single signal, a one-month above-trend reading. Other larceny tells a different, slower story: a sustained multi-month shift downward that has now reshaped the 12-month picture.
Aggravated assault sits at 39 incidents over the trailing 12 months, up 77.3% against the prior 12-month period of 22. Other larceny moved the opposite direction, 225 incidents in the current year against 300 in the year before, a 25.0% reduction that reflects a structural change rather than a single quiet month. Vandalism is also up 34.7% year-over-year, 128 vs. 95, though it did not cross the anomaly threshold this month. Every other tracked category, robbery, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and sexual assault, finished within a narrow range of the prior year.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 39 incidents — about 82% above the 21 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 225, down 25% from 300 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Beverly compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Archer Heights
38 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Beverly's 39.
Open page →Oakland
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Beverly's 39.
Open page →Hegewisch
35 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Beverly's 39.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Beverlydoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Aggravated assault | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Beverly's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Chicago); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Beverly, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.