Beverly Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Beverly is a Far South Side neighborhood on the Blue Island Ridge, organized around the Metra Rock Island District line and the 95th Street and Western Avenue commercial corridors. Predominantly single-family homes on tree-lined streets, including the historic Givins Castle and the highest natural elevation in Chicago.
Beverly had a narrow month — exactly one category registered a signal, and it was a structural one rather than a single-month move. Other larceny has shifted downward across the full 12-month window, not just a quiet spell, making this a sustained trend rather than noise.
Other larceny is down 34.2% against the prior year — 250 incidents in the current 12-month window versus 380 in the year before — the largest absolute and relative move in Beverly's tracked categories. Every other bucket stayed within range: aggravated assault and sexual assault are both up on a 12-month basis (28.6% and 50.0%, respectively, though both remain low-volume categories at 27 and 12 incidents), while robbery, burglary, and motor vehicle theft each edged modestly lower. Vandalism is up 5.6% but did not cross any anomaly threshold.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 250, down 34% from 380 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Beverly compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Pullman
249 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Beverly's 250.
Open page →Calumet Heights
260 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Beverly's 250.
Open page →McKinley Park
277 incidents over the past 12 months — 27 above Beverly's 250.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Beverly, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.