Hegewisch vandalism is June 2026's lead signal — a sharp upward move, the largest single-category anomaly in Chicago this briefing. There is no recurring lead from prior months to displace; this is the first month Hegewisch vandalism has topped the citywide rankings. Three separate sexual assault spikes in Armour Square, Lower West Side, and Douglas also rank in the top five, a concentration in one category across distinct neighborhoods that stands out in the month's overall mix.
Citywide volume is down 6.9% against the prior 12 months — 129,103 incidents versus 138,700 in the year before. The signal mix across 77 neighborhoods runs heavily toward sustained declines: 70 sustained-shift signals and 38 below-trend signals against 12 spikes. Gage Park other-larceny is the only non-violent category in the top five besides Hegewisch, with the sexual assault cluster in Armour Square, Lower West Side, and Douglas accounting for three of the remaining ranked positions.
The structural story in Chicago is still a multi-year volume decline, and June's 121 total signals fit that pattern — the majority are confirmations of ongoing downward trends, not reversals. The sexual assault signals across three neighborhoods are the element most worth tracking into July; whether they converge into a sustained shift or resolve as single-month noise will determine whether this briefing marks the start of a new trend or remains an isolated cluster.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 34% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for June were issued from data through May 2026. 6 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (67%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 1232[1111–1369] | 1051 | 17.3% | MISS |
| Arson | 40[23–56] | 28 | 42.0% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 540[357–727] | 493 | 9.5% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 51[31–70] | 43 | 19.1% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 1975[1051–2902] | 1497 | 31.9% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 5719[4646–6815] | 4523 | 26.4% | MISS |
| Robbery | 470[258–692] | 389 | 20.7% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 269[235–302] | 246 | 9.2% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 2356[2111–2594] | 1897 | 24.2% | MISS |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “June 2026 — Chicago,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /chicago/2026/june