Chicago Crime Rate — May 2026

Armour Square sexual assault is the lead signal this month — a sharp move above its multi-year baseline, the most statistically distinct single observation in the May 2026 briefing. Hegewisch vandalism was the prior month's lead category, but with vandalism already the top-ranked bucket last briefing, the fresh story is the sexual assault pattern appearing in multiple neighborhoods: Armour Square leads, and Lower West Side shows the same category in the top five.

Citywide volume is down 6.6% against the prior 12 months — 130,871 incidents against 140,093 the year before. Despite that decline, the signal mix this month leans toward upward moves: 13 spikes against 31 below-trend signals, with 68 sustained-shift signals across 77 neighborhoods. Gage Park other-larceny and Lincoln Square other-larceny also appear in the top five, adding a second category thread alongside the sexual assault pattern.

This is the first month Armour Square sexual assault has topped the rankings, so there is no established run to contextualize it against. With 113 total signals and the citywide trend still declining, the structural backdrop remains one of falling volume — but the concentration of fresh spikes in sexual assault across more than one neighborhood is the pattern to track in the June briefing.

Sustained drops worth naming

Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 33% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for May were issued from data through April 2026. 9 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.