Chicago Crime Rate — December 2025

Hegewisch vandalism is the lead signal for December 2025 — a sharp above-trend move that outpaced every other neighborhood-category pair this month. There is no recurring lead combination to account for; this is a fresh signal with no prior-month streak behind it. Four other top-five entries are other-larceny spikes spread across Archer Heights, Gage Park, Hyde Park, and Lincoln Square.

Citywide volume is down 11.2% against the prior 12 months — 130,454 incidents against 146,971 the year before. The signal mix across 77 neighborhoods runs heavily toward structural patterns: 97 sustained-shift signals and 77 zero-event signals dominate the 213 total, with 12 fresh spikes and 27 below-trend moves rounding out the month. The concentration of other-larceny spikes across four geographically separate neighborhoods is the secondary story.

The other-larceny pattern across Archer Heights, Gage Park, Hyde Park, and Lincoln Square is worth watching — four simultaneous spikes in the same category, in unconnected neighborhoods, in a single month is an unusual distribution. The overall decline in citywide volume is consistent with the multi-month trend, and the sustained-shift signals suggest that decline has structural depth rather than a single-month pull.

Sustained drops worth naming

Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 28% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.