Archived snapshotMarch 2025 · narrative + chart preserved as published · live data has moved on
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Chicago · monthly briefing

Chicago Crime Rate — March 2025

Hegewisch other larceny ran 69% above its multi-year baseline.

Hegewisch other-larceny is the strongest single-neighborhood signal in March 2025, a sharp above-trend move that stands out even in a month with 21 fresh spikes across Chicago. No demoted lead is in play — this is a clean rotation, with Hegewisch at the top of the rankings for the first time. Archer Heights other-larceny surfaced immediately behind it, suggesting the category itself is moving, not just one neighborhood.

Citywide volume is down 6.9% against the prior 12 months — 142,267 incidents versus 152,812. That decline holds as the structural backdrop, but the signal mix this month tilts active: 21 spikes against only 7 below-trend moves, across 77 neighborhoods. Kenwood and West Lawn both registered sexual-assault spikes, and East Side motor-vehicle theft also appeared in the top five — three distinct categories among the most prominent moves.

With 86 sustained-shift signals and 77 zero-event signals alongside the fresh spikes, the month reflects a city still trending down in volume but generating localized bursts of activity. The other-larceny concentration across Hegewisch and Archer Heights is one pattern worth tracking in April — whether it holds or resolves will clarify whether this is a structural shift or a short-run cluster.

FIG 1 · LEAD ANOMALYOTHER LARCENY · HEGEWISCH · 24-MO COUNT
01325μ 15.3 · σ 4.5 · trailing 12-mo2023-042025-03ARCHIVED
Hegewisch other larceny, monthly count over 24 months ending in March 2025. The dashed line is the trailing-12-month mean for context. The final bar (highlighted) is March. Frozen view as published.

Sustained drops worth naming

Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 27% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

CITEPublic Analyst.ai, “March 2025Chicago,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /chicago/2025/march