Noe Valley other larceny is the lead signal for September 2025 — a sharp rise against its multi-year baseline that stands as the most statistically distinct move in the city this month. Bernal Heights other larceny registered the same category-level shift, making the pairing the clearest coordinated pattern in this briefing. No prior-month recurring lead was in place, so this is a fresh signal without a backdrop to contextualize it against.
Citywide volume is down 23.7% against the prior 12 months — 42,817 incidents vs 56,133 the year before. The overall mix remains dominated by declines: 92 sustained-shift signals and 70 below-trend signals against just 2 fresh spikes across 41 neighborhoods. Hayes Valley vandalism and Russian Hill robbery both ran below trend, reinforcing the broad pattern of contraction that has held through most of 2025. A rare-event signal in Chinatown homicide also surfaced, though low-count categories carry wide variance.
The structural picture has not changed: San Francisco's overall volume is materially lower than a year ago, and the dominant signal type is still the sustained decline. The Noe Valley and Bernal Heights other-larceny spikes are the one area where the month departs from that pattern. Whether those two neighborhoods are the start of a broader category reversal or an isolated cluster is something October's data will clarify.
Sustained drops worth naming
Sexual Assault ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 54% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
Public Analyst.ai, “September 2025 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2025/september