Lake City Crime Rate Trends — Seattle
Lake City is a far-northeast neighborhood organized around Lake City Way NE, the historic primary route to Bothell and points north. Predominantly mid-century single-family homes and apartment buildings, with the Lake City Library and Civic Core area at 125th and 28th.
Four categories moved in Lake City this March — one ran below its single-month trend, and three reflect structural, multi-month shifts downward. The dominant shape is a broad, sustained decline across property and violent crime rather than any isolated monthly fluctuation.
Burglary is the sharpest signal: the trailing 12 months show 176 incidents against 249 in the prior year, a 29.3% reduction, and a sustained-shift signal confirms the drop extends beyond a single quiet month. Aggravated assault tells a similar story — 64 incidents in the current 12 months against 104 previously, down 38.5% year over year, also a sustained shift. Motor vehicle theft rounds out the picture at 148 incidents versus 294, down 49.7% against the prior 12 months; theft from vehicle and vandalism are also lower year over year, though neither broke out as a top signal this month.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 176 incidents — about 38% below the 284 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 148, down 50% from 294 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 176, down 29% from 249 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 64, down 39% from 104 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Lake City compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Beacon Hill
216 incidents over the past 12 months — 40 above Lake City's 176.
Open page →Delridge
236 incidents over the past 12 months — 60 above Lake City's 176.
Open page →Magnolia
107 incidents over the past 12 months — 69 below Lake City's 176.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Lake City, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.