Beacon Hill Crime Rate Trends — Seattle
Beacon Hill is a long ridge running south from the International District, anchored by the Beacon Hill Link light rail station and Jefferson Park atop the hill. Mostly single-family bungalows and craftsman homes on a tight grid, with Beacon Avenue South as the spine commercial corridor.
Two categories moved in Beacon Hill this August, one a single-month below-trend signal in burglary, the other a structural multi-month decline in theft from vehicle. The overall picture is narrow but consistent: both signals point downward, and the broader 12-month numbers reinforce that direction across most property crime categories.
Burglary is the month's strongest signal, with the trailing 12 months at 211 incidents against 251 in the prior year, down 15.9%. Theft from vehicle carries more structural weight: 342 incidents over the current 12 months versus 457 in the year before, a 25.2% gap that has built across multiple months rather than arriving in a single period. Robbery and motor vehicle theft also show year-over-year declines of 25.3% and 21.9% respectively, though neither crossed the threshold this month. Aggravated assault and vandalism were essentially flat.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 211 incidents — about 24% below the 279 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 342, down 25% from 457 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Beacon Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Lake City
204 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Beacon Hill's 211.
Open page →Delridge
245 incidents over the past 12 months — 34 above Beacon Hill's 211.
Open page →West Seattle
251 incidents over the past 12 months — 40 above Beacon Hill's 211.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Beacon Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SPD's Crime Data feed on Seattle Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.