Beacon Hill Crime Rate Trends — Seattle
Beacon Hill is a long ridge running south from the International District, anchored by the Beacon Hill Link light rail station and Jefferson Park atop the hill. Mostly single-family bungalows and craftsman homes on a tight grid, with Beacon Avenue South as the spine commercial corridor.
Three categories moved in Beacon Hill this March — one one-month below-trend signal and two sustained structural shifts. The structural pattern runs consistently downward across property crime, with motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle both locked into multi-month declines rather than single quiet readings.
Burglary is the sharpest single-month signal: 216 incidents over the current 12 months against a prior-year total of 282, a 23.4% reduction. Theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft are both carrying sustained downward shifts — down 31.4% and 27.7% year-over-year, respectively. Everything else in the tracked categories was within range this month, including robbery, which is also lower on a 12-month basis at 76 vs. 94 the prior year but did not cross the signal threshold.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 216 incidents — about 23% below the 280 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 348, down 31% from 507 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 261, down 28% from 361 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Beacon Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Delridge
236 incidents over the past 12 months — 20 above Beacon Hill's 216.
Open page →Lake City
176 incidents over the past 12 months — 40 below Beacon Hill's 216.
Open page →Northwest
272 incidents over the past 12 months — 56 above Beacon Hill's 216.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Beacon Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.