Beacon Hill Crime Rate Trends — Seattle
Beacon Hill is a long ridge running south from the International District, anchored by the Beacon Hill Link light rail station and Jefferson Park atop the hill. Mostly single-family bungalows and craftsman homes on a tight grid, with Beacon Avenue South as the spine commercial corridor.
September 2026 was a narrow month for Beacon Hill. Only one category moved outside its expected range: burglary ran below trend, the sole signal across all tracked crime types. The rest of the portfolio held close to prior patterns.
Burglary is down 11.8% against the prior 12 months, 210 incidents vs. 238 in the year before. Robbery shows the sharpest 12-month decline in the neighborhood, 61 incidents against 90 in the prior year, a drop of 32.2%, though that shift did not register as a fresh single-month signal. Vandalism and arson are the only two categories running above their prior-year totals, at 239 and 12 respectively, but neither crossed the signal threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 210 incidents — about 25% below the 279 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Beacon Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Lake City
203 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Beacon Hill's 210.
Open page →Delridge
242 incidents over the past 12 months — 32 above Beacon Hill's 210.
Open page →Northgate
248 incidents over the past 12 months — 38 above Beacon Hill's 210.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Beacon Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SPD's Crime Data feed on Seattle Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.