Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island Crime Rate Trends — New York
Staten Island's central community district covers the Mid-Island — New Springville, Bulls Head, Travis, Chelsea, Heartland Village, Willowbrook, Westerleigh, and the South Beach / Midland Beach communities. Anchored by the Staten Island Mall, the College of Staten Island campus, the LaTourette Park and Greenbelt, the Staten Island Expressway, and the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge approach.
Three categories moved in Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island this month: one single-month below-trend signal and two sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward, with the multi-year declines in burglary and other larceny the more structurally significant story behind the one-month vandalism move.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month signal, with the current 12-month total at 356 against a baseline of 602.49. Burglary and other larceny are both running well below their prior-year levels — burglary down 39.7% (76 incidents vs. 126) and other larceny down 30.1% (1,257 vs. 1,798) — and both are classified as sustained shifts, meaning the drawdown has held across multiple months, not just May.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 356 incidents — about 41% below the 602 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,257, down 30% from 1,798 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 76, down 40% from 126 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side
352 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island's 356.
Open page →Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens
348 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island's 356.
Open page →Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside
347 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island's 356.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.