Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island Crime Rate Trends — New York
Staten Island's central community district covers the Mid-Island — New Springville, Bulls Head, Travis, Chelsea, Heartland Village, Willowbrook, Westerleigh, and the South Beach / Midland Beach communities. Anchored by the Staten Island Mall, the College of Staten Island campus, the LaTourette Park and Greenbelt, the Staten Island Expressway, and the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge approach.
Four categories moved in Staten Island CD2, Mid-Island this August, and the shape is uniformly downward. One registered as a single-month below-trend signal, vandalism, while three others, burglary, other larceny, and a fourth tracked category, show structural sustained shifts: multi-month declines that go beyond a quiet August and point to a longer directional change across property crime.
Vandalism stands out as the month's sharpest single signal, with the trailing 12-month count at 331 against 449 in the prior year, down 26.3%. Burglary has moved further still, 79 incidents over the current 12 months vs. 117 prior, a 32.5% reduction. Other larceny, the highest-volume category here, fell from 1,810 to 1,235, down 31.8%. Every other tracked category, robbery, aggravated assault, theft from vehicle, motor vehicle theft, and sexual assault, also ran below their prior-year totals, though none crossed the signal threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 331 incidents — about 45% below the 597 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,235, down 32% from 1,810 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 331, down 26% from 449 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 79, down 33% from 117 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights
327 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island's 331.
Open page →Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens
340 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 above Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island's 331.
Open page →Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside
341 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island's 331.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.