Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island Crime Rate Trends — New York
Staten Island's central community district covers the Mid-Island — New Springville, Bulls Head, Travis, Chelsea, Heartland Village, Willowbrook, Westerleigh, and the South Beach / Midland Beach communities. Anchored by the Staten Island Mall, the College of Staten Island campus, the LaTourette Park and Greenbelt, the Staten Island Expressway, and the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge approach.
March 2026 brought two sustained structural shifts in Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island, with nothing else breaking from range. The shape of the month is narrow but pointed: both signals are multi-month realignments, not single-month noise, and they cut in opposite directions — one category up, one sharply down.
Aggravated assault is the leading signal, up 28.8% over the trailing 12 months — 237 incidents against 184 in the prior year. Burglary moved the other way with equal force, down 31.6% over the same window, 91 incidents against 133. All other tracked categories — robbery, theft from vehicle, other larceny, motor vehicle theft, vandalism, sexual assault — ran within their normal year-over-year ranges this month.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 91, down 32% from 133 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 237, up 29% from 184 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay
239 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island's 237.
Open page →Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side
230 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island's 237.
Open page →Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens
227 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island's 237.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.