Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island Crime Rate Trends — New York
Staten Island's central community district covers the Mid-Island — New Springville, Bulls Head, Travis, Chelsea, Heartland Village, Willowbrook, Westerleigh, and the South Beach / Midland Beach communities. Anchored by the Staten Island Mall, the College of Staten Island campus, the LaTourette Park and Greenbelt, the Staten Island Expressway, and the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge approach.
July 2026 produced a single notable signal across Staten Island CD2, Mid-Island: a sustained structural shift in burglary, now running well below where it stood over the prior 12-month period. This is not a one-month anomaly but a multi-month pattern embedded in the trailing year. Every other tracked category fell within its expected range.
Burglary is down 34.4% against the prior 12 months, 82 incidents versus 125 the year before, and the sustained-shift classification indicates this lower level has held across multiple months rather than reflecting a single quiet period. The broader property and violent crime picture reinforces the direction: aggravated assault is down 20.3% (185 vs. 232), robbery down 24.6% (46 vs. 61), and vandalism down 19.3% (369 vs. 457) over the same trailing window. Other larceny, the highest-volume category, dropped 23.4% year over year to 1,377 incidents.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 82, down 34% from 125 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston
83 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island's 82.
Open page →Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park
83 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island's 82.
Open page →Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park
86 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island's 82.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Staten Island CD2 — Mid-Island, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.