Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD7 is the Upper West Side and Manhattan Valley, from West 59th to West 110th between Central Park and the Hudson River. Anchored by Lincoln Center, Columbus Circle, the American Museum of Natural History, Riverside Park, and the 1/2/3 and B/C subway lines on Broadway and Central Park West.
March 2026 was a structurally mixed month for Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side. No category crossed the anomaly threshold this month, but the 12-month picture shows movement in multiple directions: burglary is up 21.2% against the prior year, theft from vehicle is up 17.2%, and aggravated assault is up 8.6%, while robbery, sexual assault, motor vehicle theft, vandalism, and arson are all running below their prior-year levels.
The property crime picture is the clearest divergence: burglary reached 343 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 283 in the year before, and theft from vehicle climbed from 157 to 184. On the other side, motor vehicle theft is down 23.0% (94 vs. 122), vandalism is down 13.9% (452 vs. 525), and robbery fell 16.2% to 192. No single-month signal crossed the threshold, so the month's story is in the 12-month trajectory — two property categories rising while others pull in the opposite direction.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side
3,945 incidents over the past 12 months — 47 below Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side's 3,992.
Open page →Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen
4,052 incidents over the past 12 months — 60 above Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side's 3,992.
Open page →Manhattan CD3 — Lower East Side / Chinatown
3,862 incidents over the past 12 months — 130 below Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side's 3,992.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.