Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD6 covers Park Slope, Carroll Gardens, Cobble Hill, Gowanus, Red Hook, and Columbia Street Waterfront District. Anchored by Prospect Park's western edge, the Gowanus Canal, the Brooklyn–Battery Tunnel approach, the Smith–9th Streets viaduct station, and Red Hook's Atlantic Basin and IKEA waterfront.
Six categories moved in Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens this month, split evenly between one-month below-trend signals and sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall shape is a broad, consistent pullback across both property crime and violent categories, not a single outlier driving the picture.
The three one-month drops are led by vandalism, other larceny, and theft from vehicle — vandalism's trailing 12-month total sits at 348 against a prior-year count of 366, while other larceny has fallen 27.4% year-over-year (977 vs 1,346). The three sustained shifts extend the same directional story: robbery is down 31.5% over the past 12 months (85 vs 124), motor vehicle theft is down 38.0% (67 vs 108), and categories outside the top three are running well below prior-year ranges across the board.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 348 incidents — about 28% below the 484 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 977 incidents — about 31% below the 1417 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 70 incidents — about 45% below the 128 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 977, down 27% from 1,346 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 67, down 38% from 108 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 85, down 32% from 124 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside
347 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens's 348.
Open page →Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights
346 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens's 348.
Open page →Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side
352 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens's 348.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.