Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD6 covers Park Slope, Carroll Gardens, Cobble Hill, Gowanus, Red Hook, and Columbia Street Waterfront District. Anchored by Prospect Park's western edge, the Gowanus Canal, the Brooklyn–Battery Tunnel approach, the Smith–9th Streets viaduct station, and Red Hook's Atlantic Basin and IKEA waterfront.
Six categories moved in Brooklyn CD6 this August, all downward. Four ran below trend for the month, and two reflect sustained structural shifts over the trailing 12 months. The overall pattern is a broad, multi-category pullback across both property crime and violent crime, not a single outlier pulling the average down.
Other larceny is the strongest single signal: 957 incidents over the current 12-month window against 1,313 in the prior year, a 27.1% decline. Vandalism and theft from vehicle also ran below trend, with theft from vehicle down 27.2% year-over-year and vandalism down 7.9%. Robbery tells the longest story in the data: 81 incidents in the current 12 months against 121 in the prior year, a 33.1% reduction. Everything else tracked in the neighborhood moved within a tighter range, with aggravated assault essentially flat at -3.9% and sexual assault the one category moving in the other direction, up 10.8% year-over-year to 92 incidents.
Notable signals 4
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 957 incidents — about 32% below the 1414 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 340 incidents — about 29% below the 480 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 67 incidents — about 47% below the 126 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 81 incidents — about 35% below the 124 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 957, down 27% from 1,313 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 81, down 33% from 121 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights
945 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 below Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens's 957.
Open page →Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach
990 incidents over the past 12 months — 33 above Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens's 957.
Open page →Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven
993 incidents over the past 12 months — 36 above Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens's 957.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.