Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD6 covers Park Slope, Carroll Gardens, Cobble Hill, Gowanus, Red Hook, and Columbia Street Waterfront District. Anchored by Prospect Park's western edge, the Gowanus Canal, the Brooklyn–Battery Tunnel approach, the Smith–9th Streets viaduct station, and Red Hook's Atlantic Basin and IKEA waterfront.
March 2026 was a flat month for Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold, and the flag count sits at zero. The dominant 12-month pattern is a broad property-crime decline holding across most buckets, with two categories — burglary and vandalism — running modestly above their prior-year levels.
Robbery is down 23.9% against the prior 12 months (102 incidents vs. 134), and motor vehicle theft is down 21.3% (85 vs. 108). Other larceny, the highest-volume category at 1,180 incidents over the trailing year, is 16.9% below the prior period. Burglary (163 vs. 152, up 7.2%) and vandalism (403 vs. 374, up 7.8%) are the two categories moving in the other direction, though neither produced a signal this month. Everything else — aggravated assault, sexual assault, theft from vehicle, arson — landed within its expected range.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights
1,203 incidents over the past 12 months — 23 above Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens's 1,180.
Open page →Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens
1,157 incidents over the past 12 months — 23 below Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens's 1,180.
Open page →Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach
1,204 incidents over the past 12 months — 24 above Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens's 1,180.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.