Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD2 covers Sunnyside, Woodside, Hunters Point South, and Sunnyside Gardens. Anchored by the Sunnyside Yard rail complex, Queens Boulevard, the 7 train viaduct along Queens Boulevard, the Sunnyside Gardens historic district, and Doughboy Park.
July 2026 was a quiet month for Queens CD2, Sunnyside / Woodside. No tracked category crossed the anomaly threshold, and the signal count across all signal types came to zero. The story this month is not a single mover but the steady, broad direction the 12-month data keeps pointing.
Seven of eight tracked categories are running below their prior-year totals. Other larceny is down 16.0% (1,890 incidents vs. 2,250), vandalism is down 14.8% (398 vs. 467), and aggravated assault is down 11.2% (253 vs. 285). The one exception is motor vehicle theft, up 14.0% over the prior 12 months, 269 incidents against 236, the only category moving in the opposite direction from the rest of the neighborhood.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester
1,899 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 above Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside's 1,890.
Open page →Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights
1,767 incidents over the past 12 months — 123 below Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside's 1,890.
Open page →Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge
1,763 incidents over the past 12 months — 127 below Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside's 1,890.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.