Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD2 covers Sunnyside, Woodside, Hunters Point South, and Sunnyside Gardens. Anchored by the Sunnyside Yard rail complex, Queens Boulevard, the 7 train viaduct along Queens Boulevard, the Sunnyside Gardens historic district, and Doughboy Park.
Four signals shaped May 2026 in Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside: one below-trend month for vandalism and three sustained structural shifts, all pointing downward across property crime. The dominant pattern is not a single noisy month — it is a multi-year compression visible across burglary, other larceny, and vandalism simultaneously.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month signal, with a current 12-month total of 347 against a baseline mean of 580.14 — a sustained departure from prior norms. Burglary is down 25.0% against the prior 12 months (186 vs. 248), and other larceny is down 25.8% (1,727 vs. 2,326). Every other tracked category, from robbery to motor vehicle theft, finished within a narrower range — none crossed an anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 347 incidents — about 40% below the 580 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,727, down 26% from 2,326 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 347, down 29% from 487 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 186, down 25% from 248 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens
348 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside's 347.
Open page →Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights
346 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside's 347.
Open page →Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side
352 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside's 347.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.