Staten Island CD1 — North Shore Crime Rate Trends — New York
Staten Island's northernmost community district covers the North Shore — St. George, Tompkinsville, Stapleton, Clifton, New Brighton, West Brighton, Port Richmond, Mariners Harbor, and Arlington. Anchored by the Staten Island Ferry terminal at St. George, the Bayonne Bridge and Goethals Bridge approaches, the Staten Island Railway's northern terminus, and the Snug Harbor Cultural Center.
Six categories moved in Staten Island CD1, North Shore this August, split evenly between single-month below-trend signals and multi-month sustained shifts. The three one-month drops, vandalism, theft from vehicle, and burglary, land against a backdrop of structural declines already underway across multiple categories. Nothing moved upward.
Vandalism is the strongest signal: the trailing 12 months totaled 637 incidents against 918 in the prior year, down 30.6%, and the current pace sits well below its multi-year level. Theft from vehicle is down 34.9% year-over-year, 190 incidents versus 292. Burglary fell 24.6%, from 142 to 107. The rest of the tracked categories, robbery, aggravated assault, sexual assault, motor vehicle theft, and arson, all show similar downward trajectories in the 12-month totals, reinforcing that the broad direction across property and violent crime is lower than it was a year ago.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 637 incidents — about 46% below the 1176 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 190 incidents — about 44% below the 341 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 107 incidents — about 34% below the 162 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,441, down 32% from 2,103 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 637, down 31% from 918 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 190, down 35% from 292 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Staten Island CD1 — North Shore compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge
630 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Staten Island CD1 — North Shore's 637.
Open page →Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem
629 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Staten Island CD1 — North Shore's 637.
Open page →Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview
628 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Staten Island CD1 — North Shore's 637.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Staten Island CD1 — North Shore, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.