Staten Island CD1 — North Shore Crime Rate Trends — New York
Staten Island's northernmost community district covers the North Shore — St. George, Tompkinsville, Stapleton, Clifton, New Brighton, West Brighton, Port Richmond, Mariners Harbor, and Arlington. Anchored by the Staten Island Ferry terminal at St. George, the Bayonne Bridge and Goethals Bridge approaches, the Staten Island Railway's northern terminus, and the Snug Harbor Cultural Center.
Two categories moved in Staten Island CD1 — North Shore this month: one one-month below-trend signal and one structural sustained shift. The shape is narrowly downward, with both signals pointing in the same direction across property crime.
Vandalism is down 20.1% over the trailing 12 months — 805 incidents against a prior-year total of 1,007 — and the current 12-month total sits below the multi-year baseline. Burglary's sustained shift reflects a longer structural change: 121 incidents in the current 12 months against 176 in the prior period, a 31.2% decline that spans more than a single quiet month. All other tracked categories, including Robbery at 8.6% above its prior-year total and Aggravated Assault essentially flat at 0.5%, were within normal range.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 805 incidents — about 32% below the 1191 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 121, down 31% from 176 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Staten Island CD1 — North Shore compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge
806 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Staten Island CD1 — North Shore's 805.
Open page →Manhattan CD3 — Lower East Side / Chinatown
811 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Staten Island CD1 — North Shore's 805.
Open page →Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview
798 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Staten Island CD1 — North Shore's 805.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Staten Island CD1 — North Shore, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.