Staten Island CD1 — North Shore Crime Rate Trends — New York
Staten Island's northernmost community district covers the North Shore — St. George, Tompkinsville, Stapleton, Clifton, New Brighton, West Brighton, Port Richmond, Mariners Harbor, and Arlington. Anchored by the Staten Island Ferry terminal at St. George, the Bayonne Bridge and Goethals Bridge approaches, the Staten Island Railway's northern terminus, and the Snug Harbor Cultural Center.
Two categories moved in Staten Island CD1, North Shore this month, both below trend. Vandalism and theft from vehicle are the active signals, and both read as drops rather than structural shifts. The rest of the tracked categories were within their normal ranges.
Vandalism is the stronger of the two signals: the trailing 12-month total stands at 720 incidents, down 22.5% against the prior 12-month period of 929. Theft from vehicle similarly ran below trend, 227 incidents over the current 12 months against 272 in the year before, a 16.5% decline. Across the broader category set, the 12-month direction is consistently downward, with other larceny off 24.1%, burglary off 19.0%, and arson at just 5 incidents against 13 in the prior year.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 720 incidents — about 39% below the 1179 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 227 incidents — about 34% below the 342 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Staten Island CD1 — North Shore compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview
699 incidents over the past 12 months — 21 below Staten Island CD1 — North Shore's 720.
Open page →Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill
742 incidents over the past 12 months — 22 above Staten Island CD1 — North Shore's 720.
Open page →Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant
743 incidents over the past 12 months — 23 above Staten Island CD1 — North Shore's 720.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Staten Island CD1 — North Shore, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.