Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD4 covers Concourse, Highbridge, Mount Eden, and Concourse Village. Anchored by Yankee Stadium, the Grand Concourse boulevard, the 4/B/D subway lines, the Bronx County Courthouse complex, and the High Bridge over the Harlem River.
Seven signals across Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge this month, six of them sustained shifts and one single-month drop. The structural story is broad and consistently downward: robbery, burglary, aggravated assault, sexual assault, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism all registered as multi-month declines against their prior baselines, not one-off quiet months.
Theft from vehicle led the single-month signals — current 12-month total of 209 against a prior-year total of 336, a drop of 37.8%. Robbery and burglary reinforced the structural picture: robbery is down 29.6% over the trailing 12 months (364 vs. 517), burglary down 34.5% (184 vs. 281). Every other tracked category also ran below its prior-year total, and none registered a spike or rare event.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 209 incidents — about 55% below the 464 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,627, down 31% from 2,364 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 642, down 25% from 857 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 216, down 38% from 346 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 209, down 38% from 336 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone
213 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge's 209.
Open page →Manhattan CD12 — Washington Heights / Inwood
214 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge's 209.
Open page →Bronx CD3 — Morrisania / Crotona
200 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge's 209.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.