Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD4 covers Concourse, Highbridge, Mount Eden, and Concourse Village. Anchored by Yankee Stadium, the Grand Concourse boulevard, the 4/B/D subway lines, the Bronx County Courthouse complex, and the High Bridge over the Harlem River.
March 2026 was a quiet month for Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold, and the flag mix is empty across all signal types. The story this month is entirely in the 12-month trailing totals, which lean consistently downward across nearly every category.
Homicide is the sharpest mover over the trailing year — 5 incidents against 14 in the prior 12 months, a 64.3% decline. Theft from Vehicle is down 20.4% (262 vs. 329), Other Larceny down 14.0% (2,050 vs. 2,385), and Motor Vehicle Theft down 15.7% (289 vs. 343). Aggravated Assault is the only category running above its prior-year pace, up 1.6% to 1,010 incidents — the one exception in an otherwise broad multi-category decline.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park
2,082 incidents over the past 12 months — 32 above Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge's 2,050.
Open page →Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside
2,085 incidents over the past 12 months — 35 above Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge's 2,050.
Open page →Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester
2,099 incidents over the past 12 months — 49 above Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge's 2,050.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.