Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD4 covers Concourse, Highbridge, Mount Eden, and Concourse Village. Anchored by Yankee Stadium, the Grand Concourse boulevard, the 4/B/D subway lines, the Bronx County Courthouse complex, and the High Bridge over the Harlem River.
Eight categories moved in Bronx CD4, Concourse / Highbridge this August 2026, with seven of them reflecting sustained multi-year structural shifts rather than single-month noise. The dominant shape is a broad, durable decline across both violent and property crime. One additional single-month below-trend signal, theft from vehicle, sits on top of an already-falling 12-month trend.
Theft from vehicle stands out: the current 12-month total is 188 incidents against 310 in the prior year, down 39.4%. Robbery and aggravated assault both register as sustained shifts downward, 346 vs. 505 for robbery (down 31.5%) and 793 vs. 1,067 for aggravated assault (down 25.7%). Every other tracked category is also running below its prior-year level, and nothing in the mix moved upward this period.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 188 incidents — about 59% below the 459 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,605, down 32% from 2,363 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 630, down 29% from 881 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 793, down 26% from 1,067 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 196, down 40% from 326 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Staten Island CD1 — North Shore
190 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge's 188.
Open page →Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park
184 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge's 188.
Open page →Bronx CD3 — Morrisania / Crotona
181 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge's 188.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.