Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD9 covers Parkchester, Soundview, Castle Hill, Clason Point, Harding Park, and Unionport. Anchored by the Parkchester planned community, the Bronx River Parkway, the Cross Bronx Expressway, and the 6 train along Westchester Avenue.
Eight categories moved in Bronx CD9 (Parkchester / Soundview) this August 2026 briefing, and the shape is broadly downward. Six of those signals are sustained shifts, meaning the movement reflects multi-month structural change rather than a single quiet period. Two additional below-trend signals, vandalism and theft from vehicle, round out a month where no category spiked above trend.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month signal, with the trailing 12-month count at 628 against a prior-year total of 865, a drop of 27.4%. Theft from vehicle is also running below trend, down 28.2% year-over-year (196 incidents vs. 273). Robbery stands out in the sustained-shift tier: 262 incidents over the current 12 months against 489 in the prior period, a 46.4% decline that points to a structural move, not a one-month dip. Everything else in the tracked categories held within those same broadly declining ranges.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 628 incidents — about 34% below the 948 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 196 incidents — about 38% below the 315 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,877, down 34% from 2,851 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 287, down 47% from 536 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 262, down 46% from 489 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 628, down 27% from 865 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem
629 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview's 628.
Open page →Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge
630 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview's 628.
Open page →Staten Island CD1 — North Shore
637 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 above Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview's 628.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.