Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD9 covers Parkchester, Soundview, Castle Hill, Clason Point, Harding Park, and Unionport. Anchored by the Parkchester planned community, the Bronx River Parkway, the Cross Bronx Expressway, and the 6 train along Westchester Avenue.
Nine categories moved in Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview this month, and the shape is broadly downward: two one-month below-trend signals and seven sustained shifts, the latter indicating structural multi-year declines rather than a single quiet stretch. Property crime and violent crime are both pulling lower across nearly every tracked category.
Vandalism and theft from vehicle both ran below trend this month — vandalism's current 12-month total is 646 against a baseline of 950.5. Robbery is one of seven categories showing a sustained shift, down 29.0% against the prior 12 months (331 vs. 466). Motor vehicle theft, other larceny, and burglary show similar structural drops — 36.9%, 32.0%, and 33.1% respectively — and nothing outside those tracked categories moved in the other direction.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 646 incidents — about 32% below the 951 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 194 incidents — about 39% below the 317 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 2,011, down 32% from 2,956 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 646, down 30% from 920 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 349, down 37% from 553 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 331, down 29% from 466 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge
642 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview's 646.
Open page →Staten Island CD1 — North Shore
641 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview's 646.
Open page →Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill
659 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 above Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview's 646.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.