Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD9 covers Parkchester, Soundview, Castle Hill, Clason Point, Harding Park, and Unionport. Anchored by the Parkchester planned community, the Bronx River Parkway, the Cross Bronx Expressway, and the 6 train along Westchester Avenue.
March 2026 was a narrow month for Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview. Two signals surfaced, both tied to the same category: a one-month below-trend move in theft from vehicle, sitting alongside a sustained multi-month structural shift in the same bucket. The rest of the tracked categories were within range.
Theft from vehicle is the signal to watch here. The trailing 12-month count stands at 225, against a baseline of 317 and a prior-year total of 312 — down 27.9% year-over-year. The sustained-shift signal confirms this isn't a one-month dip; it reflects a structural change across more than a year of data. Every other category — robbery, burglary, motor vehicle theft, vandalism, and the rest — ran without a signal this month.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 225 incidents — about 29% below the 317 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 225, down 28% from 312 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth
218 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview's 225.
Open page →Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst
215 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview's 225.
Open page →Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights
214 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 below Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview's 225.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.