Bronx CD3 — Morrisania / Crotona Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD3 covers Morrisania, Crotona Park East, and Claremont Village. Anchored by Crotona Park, the Boston Road and Third Avenue commercial corridors, and the 2/5 subway and Cross Bronx Expressway corridors.
Seven categories moved in Bronx CD3, Morrisania / Crotona this July 2026, all in the same direction: three one-month below-trend signals and four sustained multi-month structural shifts, every one of them downward. There are no spikes, no rare-event signals, no streak breaks. The picture is a broad, consistent decline across both violent and property crime.
Arson, theft from vehicle, and vandalism are the three sharpest one-month signals. Arson's 12-month total stands at 9, against 22 in the prior year, a 59.1% reduction. Theft from vehicle fell 37.7% over the same window, 208 incidents against 334. Vandalism dropped 21.8%, from 692 to 541. The four sustained-shift categories, including robbery at -39.0% and motor vehicle theft at -35.4%, point to a structural change that predates this month and is now running across nearly every tracked category.
Notable signals 3
Arson
The past 12 months saw 9 incidents — about 70% below the 30 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 208 incidents — about 51% below the 428 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 541 incidents — about 36% below the 839 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 288, down 39% from 472 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 208, down 38% from 334 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 175, down 35% from 271 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 190, down 27% from 260 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD3 — Morrisania / Crotona compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month arson volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable arson levels.”
Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester
9 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Bronx CD3 — Morrisania / Crotona's 9.
Open page →Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose
10 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Bronx CD3 — Morrisania / Crotona's 9.
Open page →Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park
10 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Bronx CD3 — Morrisania / Crotona's 9.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD3 — Morrisania / Crotona, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.