Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD4 spans Chelsea, Hell's Kitchen (Clinton), the Hudson Yards redevelopment, and the Theater District's western edge. Anchored by Penn Station, the High Line park, the Javits Center, and the 7-train Hudson Yards terminus.
March 2026 brought four tracked signals in Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen, split across two spikes, one below-trend move, and one sustained shift. The dominant texture is mixed rather than directional: property crime is pulling in two directions at once, with other larceny and aggravated assault both running above trend while theft from vehicle and a longer structural move point the other way.
Other larceny is the most prominent signal — 4,052 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a multi-year baseline mean of 3,043.25, a gap that accounts for the spike classification. Aggravated assault added a second spike, with 449 incidents in the current 12 months against 441 in the prior year. Theft from vehicle ran below trend, down 16.5% year-over-year to 101 incidents. The remaining categories — including vandalism at -16.3% and motor vehicle theft at -34.7% — stayed within range and did not cross a signal threshold this month.
Notable signals 3
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 4,052 incidents — about 33% above the 3043 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 449 incidents — about 52% above the 296 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 101 incidents — about 29% below the 143 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 64, down 35% from 98 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side
3,992 incidents over the past 12 months — 60 below Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen's 4,052.
Open page →Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side
3,945 incidents over the past 12 months — 107 below Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen's 4,052.
Open page →Manhattan CD3 — Lower East Side / Chinatown
3,862 incidents over the past 12 months — 190 below Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen's 4,052.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.