Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD4 spans Chelsea, Hell's Kitchen (Clinton), the Hudson Yards redevelopment, and the Theater District's western edge. Anchored by Penn Station, the High Line park, the Javits Center, and the 7-train Hudson Yards terminus.
Five categories moved in Manhattan CD4 this August: two one-month below-trend signals and three sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across both violent and property crime, with no spikes and no rare events. The sustained shifts carry the most weight here, pointing to structural declines rather than a single quiet month.
Theft from vehicle is the strongest single signal, with 74 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 114 in the prior year, down 35.1%. Vandalism also ran below trend this month, while robbery's sustained shift reflects a longer structural move, 193 incidents in the current 12 months against 264 in the year before, down 26.9%. Motor vehicle theft and other larceny round out the picture with double-digit year-over-year declines as well, and every other tracked category either held flat or fell.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 74 incidents — about 47% below the 141 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 509 incidents — about 24% below the 667 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 193, down 27% from 264 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 43, down 45% from 78 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 74, down 35% from 114 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park
74 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen's 74.
Open page →Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights
73 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen's 74.
Open page →Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side
76 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen's 74.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.