Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD4 spans Chelsea, Hell's Kitchen (Clinton), the Hudson Yards redevelopment, and the Theater District's western edge. Anchored by Penn Station, the High Line park, the Javits Center, and the 7-train Hudson Yards terminus.
July 2026 brought two signals in Manhattan CD4, Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen: a single-month below-trend read on theft from vehicle and a sustained structural shift downward in motor vehicle theft. The broader 12-month picture across the neighborhood is almost uniformly lower, with nine of ten tracked categories running below the prior year.
Theft from vehicle is at 87 incidents over the trailing 12 months, down 23.7% against the prior year's 114. Motor vehicle theft tells a longer story: 53 incidents over the current 12 months versus 84 in the year before, a 36.9% drop, and the sustained-shift classification means this isn't a one-month dip but a multi-month structural move. Every other category, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, vandalism, sexual assault, was within its normal range this month, and arson remains a near-zero category at 8 incidents for the year.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 87 incidents — about 38% below the 141 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 53, down 37% from 84 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Manhattan CD5 — Midtown
87 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen's 87.
Open page →Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck
91 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen's 87.
Open page →Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights
94 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen's 87.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.